Thursday 9 November 2023

Strategic Turn August 1861 - Missouri Joins the Confederacy !

"All we ask is to be let alone" Jefferson Davis  (above Confederate cabinet - see site footer

Housekeeping time. 

I am really enjoying this campaign now and feel "across" it terms of the organisation and maintenance. I can probably stop worrying so much as whether I am doing it "right" and just get on with it. I am already into the counter factual with McLennan appearing in the West. I have had a small tabletop battle with a result and with the death of a Union leader. I have promoted units in terms of their morale, applied recovery after a battle and adapted rules as I have needed to. I may come to regret the level of detail that I am building into the campaign as a result of using the 3 Map spread and eventually several hundred counters for tracking and tabletop conversion but it's what I wanted to attempt. The whole war. I worked out the other day that there are 5,600 10 mile hex locations on the map - granted perhaps 20 % of those are ocean but that is still an immense amount of detail for essentially a tabletop campaign. 

With that flexibility and scope McLennan may be doing something strange at the moment but it made sense looking down from the North to secure Cairo and with Lyons' demise I needed a commander to get the resources to where they are wanted. He can come back East in due course when needed or e.g. when Grant arrives. With an initiative of 1 to my mind McLennan is absolute Hindrance to progress but perhaps good for moving a large force which could then fight at Corp strength ? McLennan was notoriously cautious, inventing phantom tens of thousands of men opposing him and insisting on the perfect position before he would advance. No Alexander he. The army loved him precisely because he didn't throw them rashly into fights. In other words he just didn't fight ! 

August 1861 will be a little more complex as a strategic turn as I am going to need to test each sides supply nets. If a unit or stack is out of the supply net but demands resources on a die roll  then it could suffer from attrition. There is also the potential this turn for some of the Union or  Lincoln's 90 day volunteers to disband.

A Siege Phase on the map (none occurring this turn)

B Production Phase

C Supply and Consumption Phase; and

D Political Phase (Last month the Confederacy tried and failed on a D6 political roll to secure either of Missouri or Kentucky for the Union. A further roll would cost the confederacy a Tarif in Victory points so would be a risk. Neither side has secured any victory points - the tally is 0-0)

B Production Phase July 1861 

(1) Supply Point Generation Segment 

Union has 265 SP  left over from last turn and receives a further 150 points for the August game cycles. The total then is 415 points. The Union receives  90  Personnel points for 8/61 Initial Call which it uses in its entirety (see below). 

Confederates have 83 SP left over and receive supply as follows - Richmond 10,  Nashville 10, Memphis 5, Atlanta 5, New Orleans 10 (40). Confederate cities are valued at 0 this turn but unblocked ports receive 1 point. There are 15 confederate ports (New Orleans also receives a port import supply) but Pensacola and Norfolk remain blockaded in August as described in the rules by Forts Pickens and Fort Monroe respectively - so 13 for import. The total then is  136  SP.  The Confederates receive 70 Personnel Points for the 7/61 Initial Call. 

(2) New Unit Initiation Segment 

There are two ways to produce new units. Either side can simply create Infanty, Cavalry, Militia units etc. by paying the necessary costs in full in both supply and personnel points. A second option is to convert existing militia or garrison points into infantry brigades by removing relevant counters on an unbesieged department and replacing on the production spiral with a counter of the appropriate value. This is a cheaper way to create regular units in terms of personnel points.

Union 

Conversion

For the Union it costs no personnel points and 2 supply points to convert militia to regular infantry division/brigade counters. The relevant costs are 1 and 1 for garrison points. The counters appear after 4 cycles on the production spiral. 

C2806 Dep Middle Baltimore remove 2 x M2 place 2 x I2(PT1) Production spiral 12/61 cost 8  SP

A2712 St Louis Dep Missouri remove M2 place I2 (PT1) Production spiral 12/61 cost 4 SP

C3401 Philadelphia Dep East(West Counter) M2 place I2 (PT1) Production spiral 12/61 cost 4 SP 

A5309 Cincinatti Dep Ohio M2 place I2 (PT1) Production spiral 12/61 cost 4 SP 

Purchase 

20  Garrison Points - cost 20 PP & 20 SP spiral 10/61(ch.)

 4 x M2 1 x M3 - Cost  22 PP & 11 SP spiral 9/61

I6, I5 - Cost 33 PP & 33 SP spiral 12/61

2x RT (20 SP) spiral 9/61 2 x NT (spiral 10/61 (40 SP) 2 xRF spiral 11/61 (40 SP) 2x NF spiral 11/61 (40 SP) (total 15 PP)

ST 9/61 (25 SP & 1 PP)  Spiral 9/61 

Confederate 

Conversion 

For the Confederates it costs no personnel points and 1 supply point to create infantry from militia and 1 and 1 from a  garrison point. The counters appear after 4 cycles on the production spiral. 

C1640 Charleston DepSCarol/Ga/Fl remove M2 place I2(PT1) spiral 12/61 cost 2 SP 

C2024 Raleigh DepSVirg/NCarol remove M2 place I2(PT1) spiral 12/61 cost 2 SP 

B2802 Memphis DepKen/Tenn remove M2 place I2(PT1) spiral 12/61 cost 2 SP 

C2516 Richmond DepNorthVirg remove M2 place I2(PT1) spiral 12/61 cost 2 SP

B1705 Little Rock DepTransMi remove M2 place I2 (PT1) spiral 12/61 cost 2 SP


Purchase 

5 x M2 - Cost  20 PP & 10  SP spiral 9/61 

G10   - Cost 10  PP & 20 SP spiral 11/61

RF - Cost 2 PP & 20 SP spiral 13/62

RT - Cost 1 PP & 10 SP spiral 10/62

C2 - Cost 6 PP & 8 SP spiral 

2x I2, I3 - Cost 21  PP & 14 SP spiral 12/61 

(3) Existing Unit Augmentation Segment 

Each side can remove an existing infantry or cavalry unit (one per department - not besieged) and replace it on the unit spiral with the additional points. This represents an organisation returning from the field to recruit and expand and is the cheapest way to add strength to an existing counter in terms of Personnel Points. I have decided that I will allow existing bases within a counter that have lost PT status to "top up" strength points without having to achieve  PT status again or to suspend any current "clock" on that status if its still exists. PT status then is not lost for time spent on the map. Where a counter expands such that additional bases are required to accommodate the new recruits then a fresh clock should start. I will need then a further number  against every base on my roster within each counter to track that clock (from 1-5)  On "6" PT status is lost. The No Elite "NE" status goes with the conferring of Veteran status in accordance with the House Divided rules. I will try to count/track this within the tracker - the simplest thing is to apply a date in brackets for when PT is lost after the PT notation - so I4 (all PT 2) or 4-4 PT (4) NE . It will be "a lot" but hopefully by stating the date and not setting a timer I will have to note just once. 

I think I could start off by noting by exception to 1/62. Any veteran status stands or counters will be noted. Any counter or stand not losing its PT NE status in 1/62 will be noted in the tracker. Over time adding new counter status or shifting it with counters to the spiral or on a merger between different aged units is all I will need to do. 

Union

I am not taking this option this turn which is perhaps a wasted opportunity

Cost infantry - 1 personnel point, 3 supply points, 4 time cycles 

Cost cavalry - 4 personnel point, 5 supply points, 5 time cycles 

Confederate 

There are no small infantry units to augment available on departments 

Cost infantry - 1 personnel point,  2 supply points, 4 time cycles

Cost cavalry - 1 personnel point 4 supply points, 2 time cycles 

(4) Produced Unit Deployment Segment 

Union 

The Union has 5 x M2 (PT0) strength points to distribute (I will mark PT0 on the roster to set them apart from other on-map Militia which will at present have a clock with "1" on. I will place these on each of the departments in St. Louis, Cincinatti, Evansville, Baltimore and Philadelphia as well as 20 Garrison strength points so G4(PT0) on each. 

Confederate 

10 Militia Points and 15 Garrison Points. M2(PT0), G3(PT0)  on Little Rock, Raleigh, Charleston, Richmond and Memphis. 

(5) Brigade Merge Segment 

Both sides can merge existing brigades (one or two point infantry units or 1 point cavalry units) with division counters (I3 + or C2 +) located in the same hex. I think the brigade bases in this instance can simply sit separately with its existing PT status as a base or join an appropriate base of the same PT status. If this is not possible I will try and achieve a sensible result with the PT status being diluted on average in terms of its ageing or by some other appropriate averaging mechanic. 

Union 

A2014 Rolla I2 merges with I3 (now I5 (Crack 60 % Sigel 5-6 1st and 2nd US infantry, Deitzler  4-4 PT  NE 1st Iowa and 58th, 68th and 76th Ohio Regiments) 

Any final M2 units in Beauregard's stack are merged into the larger units at  C2409 Manassas Junction

(6) Fort Production and Deployment Segment 

There are some spends that have been  programmed in for Washington for the Union and Richmond and Vicksburg for the confederates (the latter commencing this August turn). The question for both sides is if they spend on fortifications elsewhere. 

In July I commenced works for the Union in St Louis which will continue. 

Union

2608 Washington fortification programme - X2 placed (24 " of Field Works) for August (no new building see schedule). Upgrades to Fortress in 13/61 

St.Louis- X2 placed in July (24 " of Field Works 2-5 SB-SG  - further instalment of works will appear on October 1861) 

Confederate 

Richmond fortification program (see Start Summary on 2516 Richmond) - X2 placed (24" of Field Works for August see schedule)

B2317 Vicksburg Fortress Mississippi first instalment - (12" of Field Works)  

(7) Department Deployment Segment 

Union

No department this turn

Confederate 

Department to be placed on New Orleans, Dep Miss/Ala. Had a debate about placement on Atlanta. I think a department should be placed there in November the next time an option comes up. 

(8) Headquarters Deployment Segment 

Union 

Needs to Roll 1 on a D6 to place D6 Corps HQ - rolls 5 so no placement in 7/61

Confederate 

eg

Needs to roll 1 on D6 to place 1D6  x Army HQ counter - rolls 6 so no placement in 8/61 

(9) New Historical Leaders

Check back for promotions also 

Union 

Banks ** 1-1 


Nathaniel Banks was a political appointment by Lincoln. His initial contribution, assigned to command in Southern Maryland/Winchester  was to allow the forces in the Shenandoah to slip away and reinforce at Manassas Junction prior to Bull Run. A lacklustre contribution to the Shenandoah campaign against Stonewall Jackson's "foot cavalry" was to follow. Dismissed from that command he was appointed head of the Union forces tasked with invading the Confederacy from  New Orleans. He was eventually stood down after the disappointing Red River campaign in in Trans Mississipi/Louisiana. With an initiative of 1 and combat skill of 1 he is useful for moving a divisional counter and a brigade together with an initiative "chit point" but is unlikely to be able to order a strategic movement very often under his own steam. He could of course "amplify" the command of a Corps, Army or Army Group commander. 

Banks is placed on Baltimore to potentially lead a marine invasion 

Halleck ***** 1-2-0


Soon after the commencement of the war Halleck was appointed to command the department of Missouri in the West. The tide of war in the West went well for the Union with the capture of prizes such as Fort Donaldson and Island number 10. Halleck was to have a tempestuous relationship with his subordinate Grant. Grant would remain Halleck's subordinate as he was appointed to Army Chief by Lincon in 1862 in replacement to McLennan after the failed Peninsula campaign. Eventually Grant was given that supremo role by Lincoln with Halleck moving into the post of Chief of Staff. Potentially a 5 star General is able to command several field armies with no loss of initiative, command span or combat value.  Halleck only has an initiative of 1 and command space of 2. His command skill of "0" would be a positive disadvantage on the battlefield. 

I have realised that it's OK with an Army commander to situate them behind the front line. In effect they can exert influence when they have an appropriate HQ. Halleck has been sat behind a desk in Washington to potentially direct McDowell from there. 

(Stoneman ** 2-1) 

Stoneman began the Civil War in charge of Fort Brown Texas but refused to surrender to Southern sympathisers. Rather he escaped with most of his command and was given command of the 1st US Cavalry. When McLennan was given command of the Army of the Potomac after Bull Run he appointed Stoneman who he knew from time in the West Virginia campaign to command his cavalry. Division and Corps commands followed prior to a further cavalry appointment. Stoneman completed the war as a cavalry commander in the Department of Ohio in the West followed by an appointed under Tecumseh Sherman raiding behind confederate lines. After the War he had appointments related to reconstruction in the South but in 1882 he is elected Governor of California. He died in 1894 aged 72. 

Stoneman has an initiative of 2 which is the best we are getting this round for the Union. He is in parenthesis so he is a Cavalry commander. He will not suffer any loss of ratings if he is placed in control of a Cavalry Corps. This seems strange though as he is a  ** division commander who would normally suffer a drop in values if placed in command of a Corps. I'll not worry about it overly and cross that bridge. 

I have placed Stoneman in the new Union department in Evansville on the Kentucky border.

Confederate

A.S. Johnston **** 2-3-1 to be placed on Memphis. 


The Confederates get a single but pretty decent commander this turn - Albert Sidney Johnston. Johnston commanded the Western Theatre for the Confederacy until he death from a bullet wound to the back of the  kneed to Shiloh on April 6 1862. He had sent his surgeon to treat Union wounded and could have been saved himself by the application of a simple tourniquet. Johnston was the highest ranking casualty on either side. His death was a real blow to the cause and a sad loss for Jefferson Davis who considered him his most effective commander at the time. In April 1862 Lee was yet to take up command in the East.  

He was said to have had one in his pocket on his death. I will try and keep Johnston out of the firing line so that he can fulfil his greater purpose of field command of an Army HQ as a **** general when one becomes available. 

Albert Sidney Johnston has been placed on Memphis. 

(10) Confederate Replacement Segment 

Does not operate until 1862 but is a useful mechanic when it comes allowing garrison points to be sucked into line infantry counters as replacements. 

(11) Militia Demobilisation 

This will apply to the Union  for  August 1861. Union will need to roll a  D6  and on a result of 1 or 2 the militia points on the map are immediately reduced by 50 %. 

Union rolls a 4 so no demobilisation for the Lincoln 90 day men this turn. 

If a further incentive is needed to convert Militia  I have decided that the in-campaign promotion of all newly recruitment units so that they lose their PT status at 6 months will not occur for Militia who will also be unable to progress beyond morale level "Green" i.e they will not be able to promote to veteran and lose their NE ("No Elite" status) which applies in close combat.

C Supply and Consumption Phase

Union

The Union has 146 SP left following Production and Deployment.

The Union expends 17 points on maintenance supply so 129 SP are left and then 122 after broadcast (see below)

Further broadcast may be needed once the map is set up. I should ensure that each command has adequate combat supply going forward or is in supply/access to a depot. 

The Supply Train with McLennan is boosted to 5 points using the River The Supply Train supporting Heintzelman at Rolla is boosted to 5 points which costs 4 rail transport points as the  Supply Train is on the railway but not touching the River. 

Confederate 

The Confederates have 44 SP left following Production and Deployment. Testing for supply maintenance across all stacks reduces the total by a further 16 points. So 28 in total and then 23 after broadcast. Supply trains while expensive can just leave points on the map in the middle of nowhere which is quite useful. They can also accept broadcast directly. The difficulty with depots at this early stage is that they require 2 strength points of ground forces to create and the confederates are desperately short of manpower in the West. 

I need to consider further broadcast once the map is set up again. This results in boosting the supply trains at Little Rock and Memphis by 2 and 3 points respectively 

It might be useful to start to build up supplies in key strongpoints. 

D Political Phase July 1861 

The current political score for each side is 0. The only result that could be obtained by either side on the political tables in August 1861 is for the confederacy. On a roll of 1 on a D6 Missouri will join the confederacy and on a 2 Kentucky. This would cost the confederacy 1 victory point which would swing the point total to + 1 which would provide in a subsequent turn a roll with a chance of Kentucky going to the confederates and Missouri to the Union. Equally perhaps the Confederates should seek to win on the battlefield, gain a point and appeal on the -1 column. This could cause a foreign intervention shortening the war for the Union to 26 further months and doubling all confederate imports. 

None of these results are guaranteed but the chance of bringing Missouri or Kentucky into the war on the confederate side is possibly worth the gamble. There is a 50/50 chance of winning the battle against the Union main field army and then a 50/50 chance of getting some result on the matrix. Obviously a foreign intervention would be fantastic but a result following that route is a 1 in 12 chance of foreign intervention and a 1 in 6 chance of picking up Missouri or Kentucky overall then 25 % whereas a straight roll now giving up the chance of foreign intervention would yield a result with a 33 % chance. 

So the confederates need a 1 or 2 - A 1 is rolled and Missouri joins the confederacy. The table still moves to +1 with a point being given away. 

I am using the Kentucky/Missouri variant. The confederates will receive the following additional Supply Points :-

September 14 October 10 November 6 December 4 January 2 (Total 36) 

The Union has huge sympathy from the German population in Missouri and will receive the following Supply Points :- 

October 7 November 5 December 3 January 2 and February 1 (Total 18)

On interrogating the charts there is a similar 2 to 1 points split in favour of the Union were to invade Kentucky. Once ready the Union could do this in the knowledge that they would have an easier access route to the vital trans-confederacy railway and the heartlands of Tennessee. If a massive Union force was built up it would not be so burdensome if the Union could secure early victories. 

It is clear that Kentucky is unlikely now to come over to the Confederacy prior to significant battlefield victories. The Confederates should not invade Kentucky as the points for the Union are significant and also they may lose the possibility of adding 4 cities to their supply total. 

In short then the Confederates should wait and see what the Union does in Kentucky. It is likely that they will lose patience and cross into Tennessee and invade the heartlands of the Confederacy. There is something to be said for having access to Columbus in Kentucky for the Union on the same side of the River as Union City which is currently the confederates plug in the Mississippi bottle. Given their points total advantage and the clock running against them it would not seem wise to delay too long. It would however take the border of the Confederacy to the Ohio River. On balance I think the Union will invade Kentucky in not so long if it cannot secure its confirmation of Union status politically. The give away in personnel points to the confederates is not significant.  I am not sure how neutrality could ever work in this situation however large portions of the population were sympathetic to either side.  I can imagine that Lincoln will be fretful about his native State going the way of Missouri and will be hounding his Generals to secure at least those parts of the State sympathetic to the Union in East. 

I will now update the full summary of counters and brigade bases to take into the account all of the activity for the 8/61 strategic turn.  The next stage is to do a chit draw for initiative and to carry out the first game turn proper (of 4) for 8/61. Years in the game have 13 sets cycles of 4 turns. 


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